I was midair while drafting today’s post. Always in search of great small-talk conversation topics, I asked the flight attendants who they thought would win the Oscar for Best Actor. The response: “Bradley Cooper is so HOT!” Sigh…Apparently the artistic value of the performance was not the key criteria for this not-so-scientific focus group. Rather than be discouraged, we are using this as an opportunity to test the “hot guy” quotient. And maybe for our next project we’ll build a model to predict which leading ladies and leading men will tie the knot and how long their marriages will last?
The HOT Men – Nominee Analysis:
Mr. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Lewis, a British actor, is known as a serious method actor. Frankly, he’s just known as being very serious. He eats, sleeps and breathes his roles. With such dedication, Daniel-Day Lewis has won the Oscar twice before (There Will Be Blood and My Left Foot), and has had a total of five nominations. One explanation for that success is his rigid selectivity for taking roles. He has starred in only six films since 1997 and the reception to his movies tends to be exceptional. His movies average 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. But great performances do not exist in isolation. They tend to happen among great ensembles. Day-Lewis was supported by Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Fields, both also nominated this year. Following wins at the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards, Day-Lewis’ betting markets value hit a high-point at 90% and have now settled at 88%. All of those factors are inputs for our model. Today, he sits at a 48.9% of winning in a tight race against Bradley Cooper.