Tag Archives: best actor

Hot Guy Coefficient – Best Actor

I was midair while drafting today’s post.  Always in search of great small-talk conversation topics, I asked the flight attendants who they thought would win the Oscar for Best Actor. The response: “Bradley Cooper is so HOT!”  Sigh…Apparently the artistic value of the performance was not the key criteria for this not-so-scientific focus group. Rather than be discouraged, we are using this as an opportunity to test the “hot guy” quotient. And maybe for our next project we’ll build a model to predict which leading ladies and leading men will tie the knot and how long their marriages will last?

The HOT Men – Nominee Analysis:

Mr. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Lewis, a British actor, is  known as a serious method actor. Frankly, he’s just known as being very serious.  He eats, sleeps and breathes his roles. With such dedication, Daniel-Day Lewis has won the Oscar twice before (There Will Be Blood and My Left Foot), and has had a total of five nominations. One explanation for that success is his rigid selectivity for taking roles. He has starred in only six films since 1997 and the reception to his movies tends to be exceptional.  His movies average 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. But great performances do not exist in isolation. They tend to happen among great ensembles. Day-Lewis was supported by Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Fields, both also nominated this year. Following wins at the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards, Day-Lewis’ betting markets value hit a high-point at 90% and have now settled at 88%.  All of those factors are inputs for our model. Today, he sits at a 48.9% of winning in a tight race against Bradley Cooper.

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Time to Unveil the Model – In All Its Glory

Today is the BIG DAY!! Congratulations to all those who received nominations.  For so many, this marks the achievement of a lifetime. But enough of the fluff – you are here to find out who is likely to win before everyone else!

Best Picture
Nine films qualified for Best Picture.  Over the last few weeks, Lincoln was leading the charge. It is no surprise this Spielberg epic received the nomination. And, it is the current favorite with 41.1% probability of winning.  The Weinstein Company, masters of Awards Season marketing and publicity, are never out of the race.  Silver Linings Playbook is at 24.4%.  And, Django Unchained received a nomination as well, but it’s running at under a 1% chance of winning.   Without a Director nod for Tarantino, it’s an uphill battle.   Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables all have to fight the same battle.  Their current probabilities of scoring a win are at 4.7%, 4.4%, and 3.8%, respectively.   Amour and Beasts of Southern Wild both shocked some with their nominations for Best Picture and Director.  Their probabilities of winning Best Picture are running at 10.0% and 5.3% for those films. Ang Lee scored a nomination for Life of Pi.  Given his nomination for Best Director, and nominations in 7 technical categories, Pi will be a strong contender as well.   We will explore the Best Picture race in great detail on our blog tomorrow!

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Jaw…Floor…Shocking Nominations and Snubs

As promised, it is time for us to look closely at the Golden Globes nominations for the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Let’s start with the ugly – Our favorite Hollywood blogger, Nikki Finke from Deadline, wrote her “annual censure” of the Globes. We just can’t resist her beef with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, “I refuse to treat these nominations with any seriousness.”  Her criticisms are focused on the 85 member institution. In fact, she never even gets into the discussion of current nominees.  Her colleagues at Deadline, however, are talking about the nominations, saying “HFPA Spreads Wealth As Tightest Awards Race In Years Accelerates.”

In fact, there are not too many surprises on the Best Picture front.  Remember that the HFPA splits categories into two – one for Drama and one for Comedy / Musical.  This means the Globes have 10 nominations to consider; and similarly, the Oscars can have up to 10 nominations for Best Picture as well.  That said, there are a handful of nominations on the Globes list that we’d be surprised to see named on January 10th, largely from the Comedy / Musical list, starting with Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.  We would be rather surprised to see this indie flick make it, but not because it wasn’t a compelling flick.  But, in a competitive field, consider that the film’s logline is: “A fisheries expert is approached by a consultant to help realize a sheik’s vision of bringing the sport of fly-fishing to the desert and embarks on an upstream journey of faith and fish to prove the impossible possible.”   The film doesn’t have a market on inTrade, and scored 65% with critics on Rotton Tomatoes.  Moonrise Kingdom and the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel also saw nominations for Best Comedy / Musical for the Globes.  These two both have a chance, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t quite make the cut.

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SAG Nominees

This just in…the Screen Actors Guild Award Nominees  were released today. See the list below.  And, stayed tuned for some analysis as the SAG date nears. Needless to say, this will impact our model when it comes to the Oscar Nominees for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”

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Farsite Takes to the Red Carpet with the 2013 Oscar Forecast

Data science, one of the top stories of the 2012 election, is a fast growing field.  We are the geeks who love numbers and dream in 1s and 0s.  In fact, we enjoy data so much that we built a company that helps customers harness the power of data to make better business decisions.   And, we decided this year to have a little fun with the numbers; We are pleased to announce the launch our 2013 Oscar Forecast.

We have all participated in an office Oscar pool, or wagered with our friends, as we watched the Academy Awards.  But, unlike the elections, the Oscars don’t get the star data treatment they deserve.  Sure, there are pundits at the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.com.  In a world rich with data (yes, Hollywood is data rich!), Farsite is excited to bring Big Data to the big screen, and join those pundits in conversation about who will win.

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