Tag Archives: best actress

Which Leading Lady Will Win?

After reading the press yesterday, our vote for Best Actress would have to be for Lennay Kekua who stars in “The Manti Te’o Story”.  Alas she is not in the running – probably because she does not exist.  Instead, we are left with a woman playing slightly unstable and a woman who is a spook with the CIA.  Wait…that sounds a lot like whoever this Lennay Kekua woman actually may be.  The Best Actress race, like the Best Actor race, is largely down to two: Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain.  Both of these young beauties are accomplished actors.  Even beyond these two frontrunners, this category is rich with interesting nominees and stories, including the youngest and oldest nominees in Best Actress category in Oscar history.

Leading Ladies – Nominee Analysis:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
It was only two years ago that Jennifer Lawrence burst onto the scene in Winter’s Bone.  The role earned her critical acclaim, including an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. She was only 20, and the second youngest nominee in the category in history.  Now at 22, she is the leading contender for the Oscar.  Intrade has Lawrence at 60.6%. She took home the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Comedy / Musical, and Best Actress in a Comedy at the Critics Choice Awards.  But Lawrence isn’t a type-cast actress. She also received the Critics Choice Award for Best Actress – Action, for her role in the Hunger Games in 2012.  Given her previous nomination, her strength in other awards this season, and her betting market strength, we have Lawrence at 53.5%.

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Time to Unveil the Model – In All Its Glory

Today is the BIG DAY!! Congratulations to all those who received nominations.  For so many, this marks the achievement of a lifetime. But enough of the fluff – you are here to find out who is likely to win before everyone else!

Best Picture
Nine films qualified for Best Picture.  Over the last few weeks, Lincoln was leading the charge. It is no surprise this Spielberg epic received the nomination. And, it is the current favorite with 41.1% probability of winning.  The Weinstein Company, masters of Awards Season marketing and publicity, are never out of the race.  Silver Linings Playbook is at 24.4%.  And, Django Unchained received a nomination as well, but it’s running at under a 1% chance of winning.   Without a Director nod for Tarantino, it’s an uphill battle.   Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables all have to fight the same battle.  Their current probabilities of scoring a win are at 4.7%, 4.4%, and 3.8%, respectively.   Amour and Beasts of Southern Wild both shocked some with their nominations for Best Picture and Director.  Their probabilities of winning Best Picture are running at 10.0% and 5.3% for those films. Ang Lee scored a nomination for Life of Pi.  Given his nomination for Best Director, and nominations in 7 technical categories, Pi will be a strong contender as well.   We will explore the Best Picture race in great detail on our blog tomorrow!

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Jaw…Floor…Shocking Nominations and Snubs

As promised, it is time for us to look closely at the Golden Globes nominations for the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Let’s start with the ugly – Our favorite Hollywood blogger, Nikki Finke from Deadline, wrote her “annual censure” of the Globes. We just can’t resist her beef with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, “I refuse to treat these nominations with any seriousness.”  Her criticisms are focused on the 85 member institution. In fact, she never even gets into the discussion of current nominees.  Her colleagues at Deadline, however, are talking about the nominations, saying “HFPA Spreads Wealth As Tightest Awards Race In Years Accelerates.”

In fact, there are not too many surprises on the Best Picture front.  Remember that the HFPA splits categories into two – one for Drama and one for Comedy / Musical.  This means the Globes have 10 nominations to consider; and similarly, the Oscars can have up to 10 nominations for Best Picture as well.  That said, there are a handful of nominations on the Globes list that we’d be surprised to see named on January 10th, largely from the Comedy / Musical list, starting with Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.  We would be rather surprised to see this indie flick make it, but not because it wasn’t a compelling flick.  But, in a competitive field, consider that the film’s logline is: “A fisheries expert is approached by a consultant to help realize a sheik’s vision of bringing the sport of fly-fishing to the desert and embarks on an upstream journey of faith and fish to prove the impossible possible.”   The film doesn’t have a market on inTrade, and scored 65% with critics on Rotton Tomatoes.  Moonrise Kingdom and the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel also saw nominations for Best Comedy / Musical for the Globes.  These two both have a chance, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t quite make the cut.

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SAG Nominees

This just in…the Screen Actors Guild Award Nominees  were released today. See the list below.  And, stayed tuned for some analysis as the SAG date nears. Needless to say, this will impact our model when it comes to the Oscar Nominees for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”

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Farsite Takes to the Red Carpet with the 2013 Oscar Forecast

Data science, one of the top stories of the 2012 election, is a fast growing field.  We are the geeks who love numbers and dream in 1s and 0s.  In fact, we enjoy data so much that we built a company that helps customers harness the power of data to make better business decisions.   And, we decided this year to have a little fun with the numbers; We are pleased to announce the launch our 2013 Oscar Forecast.

We have all participated in an office Oscar pool, or wagered with our friends, as we watched the Academy Awards.  But, unlike the elections, the Oscars don’t get the star data treatment they deserve.  Sure, there are pundits at the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.com.  In a world rich with data (yes, Hollywood is data rich!), Farsite is excited to bring Big Data to the big screen, and join those pundits in conversation about who will win.

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