As we mentioned in our previous post on PGA and SAG, there may be some shifting momentum in the Best Picture race. In fact, in the last few days, betting markets have begun to favor Argo for Best Picture over Lincoln. Interestingly, the markets have been fluctuating significantly. Following its win at PGA, Argo was up but still below Lincoln. Following SAG on Sunday, Argo skyrocketed. But by Monday morning, Argo was back down to levels below Lincoln, near where it was post-PGA and pre-SAG. In the last 24 hours, however, Argo has again begun to gain.
This indicates that the underlying dynamics of this race remain in flux. Sentiment continues to change and evolve. And, we’ll have yet another data-point come this weekend’s Directors Guild of America (“DGA”) Awards. Should Affleck win over Spielberg, we would expect the Argo momentum in the betting markets to continue. Fundamentally, if Affleck wins DGA, many pundits will question how he was passed over for an Oscar nomination for Best Director in the first place. Should Spielberg take home the DGA Award, he will be the clear front runner for the Oscar for Best Director, and his win may stymie the strong sentiment for Argo we’re seeing in the betting markets.