Today is the BIG DAY!! Congratulations to all those who received nominations. For so many, this marks the achievement of a lifetime. But enough of the fluff – you are here to find out who is likely to win before everyone else!
Nine films qualified for Best Picture. Over the last few weeks, Lincoln was leading the charge. It is no surprise this Spielberg epic received the nomination. And, it is the current favorite with 41.1% probability of winning. The Weinstein Company, masters of Awards Season marketing and publicity, are never out of the race. Silver Linings Playbook is at 24.4%. And, Django Unchained received a nomination as well, but it’s running at under a 1% chance of winning. Without a Director nod for Tarantino, it’s an uphill battle. Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables all have to fight the same battle. Their current probabilities of scoring a win are at 4.7%, 4.4%, and 3.8%, respectively. Amour and Beasts of Southern Wild both shocked some with their nominations for Best Picture and Director. Their probabilities of winning Best Picture are running at 10.0% and 5.3% for those films. Ang Lee scored a nomination for Life of Pi. Given his nomination for Best Director, and nominations in 7 technical categories, Pi will be a strong contender as well. We will explore the Best Picture race in great detail on our blog tomorrow!