Time to Unveil the Model – In All Its Glory

Today is the BIG DAY!! Congratulations to all those who received nominations.  For so many, this marks the achievement of a lifetime. But enough of the fluff – you are here to find out who is likely to win before everyone else!

Best Picture
Nine films qualified for Best Picture.  Over the last few weeks, Lincoln was leading the charge. It is no surprise this Spielberg epic received the nomination. And, it is the current favorite with 41.1% probability of winning.  The Weinstein Company, masters of Awards Season marketing and publicity, are never out of the race.  Silver Linings Playbook is at 24.4%.  And, Django Unchained received a nomination as well, but it’s running at under a 1% chance of winning.   Without a Director nod for Tarantino, it’s an uphill battle.   Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables all have to fight the same battle.  Their current probabilities of scoring a win are at 4.7%, 4.4%, and 3.8%, respectively.   Amour and Beasts of Southern Wild both shocked some with their nominations for Best Picture and Director.  Their probabilities of winning Best Picture are running at 10.0% and 5.3% for those films. Ang Lee scored a nomination for Life of Pi.  Given his nomination for Best Director, and nominations in 7 technical categories, Pi will be a strong contender as well.   We will explore the Best Picture race in great detail on our blog tomorrow!

Best Director
The strong relationship between Best Picture and Best Director is understood in Hollywood, but how strong is the relationship? Only 3 movies have won the Best Picture Oscar without also receiving a Best Director nomination (Wings, Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy).  And, only two directors have won a Best Director Oscar for a movie that was not nominated for Best Picture. Given all that, the nominees here are no surprise – they represent the front-runners.  Leading the pack is Steven Spielberg for Lincoln at 56.7% probability of winning. Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) are also top contenders, having both previously received the Award.  Given how strong Silver Linings Playbook has performed in all nomination categories, Russell  is at 25.3% probability of winning. Lee is at 8.1%.  Amour’s Michael Haneke and Beast’s Benh Zeitlin shocked the pundits scoring nominations. But, they definitely face tough odds of winning, with Haneke at 4.5% and Zeitlin at 5.4%.

Having missed the cut are Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Ben Affleck (Argo). Bigelow’s miss is perhaps the most shocking.

Best Actor
This could look a lot like the 2013 BCS Alabama vs. Notre Dame game…Daniel Day Lewis, as Abraham Lincoln, is the odds on favorite to take home Oscar in the Best Actor category at 49.7% likelihood of winning.  His lead has wavered little.  Denzel Washington (Flight) is at 2.9%, Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) is at 21.4%, Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) is at 19.6%, and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) is at 6.4%.

Best Actress
This could shape up to be one of the most intriguing races of Awards season.  Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) is in the lead at 41.4%.  Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) remains a close second at 29.7% probability of a win.  Both are young and tremendously accomplished.  Lawrence, at 22, earned her first Oscar Nomination for Best Actress in Winter’s Bone two years ago. Chastain, 35, was nominated last  year for Best Supporting Actress in The Help.  Naomi Watts (The Impossible) is at 5.4%. The final two spots go to the oldest and youngest candidates we have. Emmanuelle Riva stars in Amour; at 85 she’s the wisest nominee this year. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was five when she auditioned and six when the movie was filmed.  But, the odds aren’t going to favor either at 11.7%, each.

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones (from my alma mater!) is leading the forecast for Supporting Actor for his role in Lincoln, with 34.4%.  Perennial favorite, Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) is in second with 27.9% probability.  Robert De Niro is in the hunt for Silver Linings Playbook, with 16.3%.  Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) gave stellar performances to earn a spot, with a 9.9% probability of taking the trophy as of today.  Alan Arkin (Argo) is the fifth in the category, with 11.4%.  Sadly for women hoping for a sexy Oscar night, Matthew McConaughey, in his role in Magic Mike, couldn’t quite pull off the nomination.

Best Supporting Actress
The Pundits are calling this race for leader Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables).  The model currently sits at 55.5% in Hathaway’s favor.  Sally Field (Lincoln) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions) both earned praise and nominations.  They are sitting at 20.3% and 11.2% today.  Amy Adams (The Master) is at 4.5% and Jacki Weaver (Silver Lining Playbook) is at 8.4%.  We heart Amy, who has been nominated thrice before, but never won.